![]() ![]() Estimated export revenues plunged by $1.5 bn to $11.8 bn – nearly half the levels of a year ago. Russian oil exports fell 600 kb/d to 7.3 mb/d in June, their lowest since March 2021. ![]() Refining margins remain robust, with very strong Atlantic Basin gasoline cracks and rapid gains in diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil more than offsetting weak naphtha cracks. Higher Russian crude runs and the start-up of new refining capacity underpin the revision. Refinery crude throughput estimates for 20 have been raised by 130 kb/d and 90 kb/d, respectively, to 82.5 mb/d and 83.5 mb/d.In 2024, global supply is set to rise by 1.2 mb/d to a new record of 102.8 mb/d, with non-OPEC+ accounting for all of the increase. For 2023, global production is forecast to increase by 1.6 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ expands by 1.9 mb/d. World oil supply rose 480 kb/d to 101.8 mb/d in June but is set to fall sharply this month as Saudi Arabia makes a sharp 1 mb/d voluntary output cut.Buoyed by surging petrochemical use, China will account for 70% of global gains, while OECD consumption remains anaemic. However, persistent macroeconomic headwinds, apparent in a deepening manufacturing slump, have led us to revise our 2023 growth estimate lower for the first time this year, by 220 kb/d. ![]()
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